「台灣的 Fintech 市場相較中國雖然小、但競爭相對也低。」百度支付海外顧問蔡凱龍 1 日在「智能理財與數據金融新商機」論壇上指出，台灣仍有發展 Fintech 的空間，同時他也看好成長飛速的智能投顧市場，預估將於 2020 年在全球達到 2.2 兆美元的規模。

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說到台灣，蔡凱龍認為台灣目前 Fintech 發展不起來的原因除了政策保護過度，導致台灣金融企業國內競爭激烈，對外卻缺少競爭心，同時也因為台灣管理層多半年齡層較高，導致創新困難。

但他也提到，台灣市場雖然比中國小了近 60 倍，但中國針對 Fintech 的 P2P 合法公司就有 3,600 家，按比例來看，台灣應該要有 60 家此類公司，然而事實上台灣卻只有 10 家不到，顯然還有發展空間。

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他指出，跟美國與台灣不同，中國幾乎直接跳過了「支票」這個環節，從傳統貨幣直奔電子支付，才會有發展神速的感覺，這也是為甚麼大陸的商業模式多半沒有辦法直接複製到台灣。但這不代表台灣的 Fintech 做不起來，只是市場還處於過渡期，需要熟悉 Fintech 的運作模式。

Fintech 的運作模式

蔡凱龍提出四個Fintech 關鍵元素，分別是：用戶、體驗、粉絲、生態。他認為這就是為甚麼科技界的 Fintech 做的比金融界還要出色的原因－因為科技界奉行「用戶為上」的理念多年，正好打中了 Fintech 重視用戶和體驗的傾向。

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而「資金」及「場景」是讓這 4 種關鍵元素得以成形的基本需求。資金就像血液，負責在 4 種元素間流動，保持運轉（沒錢就窒礙難行），而場景就像器官，是血液交換氧氣／資金投資的場所，創造提供利潤的機會。

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但 Fintech 最不可或缺的核心元素則是「技術」與「數據」，這也是目前正夯的大數據應用，透過技術與硬體不斷升級及大數據的累積，才能滿足現代越來越多樣化的客製化理財需求（智能投顧）；而機器接近無限的處理量，可以更有效率的即時處理來自世界各地影響理財的事件。蔡凱龍舉例，中東新聞很有可能影響油價，而機器可以在當下就即時通知或處理可能被油價牽動的投資，避免無謂的資金浪費。

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智能投顧：年輕人的理財新趨勢

根據KPMG今年二月的調查，智能投顧目前在全球的管理金額約 270 億美元，相較傳統金融機構上兆的規模只佔了滄海一粟，但成長潛力大且正飛速成長，預估會以每年 68% 的成長率，在 2020 年達到 2.2 兆美元的規模。

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蔡凱龍認為智能投顧會崛起的原因很簡單，關鍵就是門檻降低了。舉例來說，以前要找 CFA（分析金融師）協助處理投資起碼要有 10 萬美元的投資金額，而智能投顧資訊處理量遠大於人類的特性，幾乎完全移除了投資金額的門檻，不管你要投資 1 萬或 100 萬，智能投顧都能為你量身打造理財建議，繼而產生長尾效應，有效提升銀行業和廣大使用眾的雙方利益。

除此之外，千禧世代採被動理財的比例高達 23%，年輕人生於資訊爆炸的年代，面對相對成熟的企業市場和大量的網路資訊，相較嬰兒潮出生和 X 世代的人，千禧世代更容易選擇被動理財／智能投顧，而之後的佔比只會越來越高。

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機器人取代人類顧問：最少還要 20 年

雖然看好潛力，但蔡凱龍預估智能投顧要取代傳統投顧還是需要至少 20 年的時間。如同互聯網經濟的主角是經濟、互聯網是工具，智能投顧的主角也是「投顧」，智能／機器人只是降低成本的手段與工具，要取代人類顧問，智能投顧還有很長的一段路要走T